"Perhaps no feature of social life has greater influence on international politics, and certainly none is less well understood, than demography. The Graying of the Great Powers presents a clear picture of the population trends of the twenty-first century and a provocative analysis of their consequences for the politics and economics of the next four decades."—Michael Mandelbaum, Johns Hopkins University, author of Democracy's Good Name: The Rise and Risks of the World's Most Popular Form of Government

"We are on the cusp of the most profound shift in global power and influence in more than a century. The Graying of the Great Powers helps us understand why this is so, how demographic and other trends will interact, and, most importantly, what we should do to manage this historic transformation."—Robert L. Hutchings, Princeton University, former chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council

"The Graying of the Great Powers is a thoughtful and valuable first step toward an urgently needed assessment of what today's momentous global demographic changes may portend for the friendly—and unfriendly—competition between states in the world arena in the decades ahead."—Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute, author of Europe's Coming Demographic Challenge: Unlocking the Value of Health

"Howe and Jackson break new ground by showing how global population aging is unlikely to lead to a 'geriatric peace.' Indeed, the forces of demography may be pushing the world toward a major crisis in the 2020s. This book is a must read for all policymakers concerned with the future of geopolitics."—Phillip Longman, New America Foundation, author of The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It

The Graying of the Great Powers offers the first comprehensive assessment of the geopolitical implications of "global aging"—the dramatic transformation in population age structures and growth rates being brought about by falling fertility and rising longevity worldwide. It describes how demographic trends in the developed world will constrain the ability of the United States and its traditional allies to maintain national and global security in the decades ahead. It also explains how dramatic demographic change in the developing world—from resurgent youth bulges in the Islamic world to premature aging in China and population implosion in Russia—will give rise to serious new security threats. While some argue that global aging is pushing the world toward greater peace and prosperity, The Graying of the Great Powers warns that a period of great geopolitical danger looms just over the horizon. Neither the triumph of multilateralism nor democratic capitalism is assured. The demographic trends of the twenty-first century will challenge the geopolitical assumptions of both the left and the right.

Richard Jackson is a senior fellow and director of the CSIS Global Aging Initiative, as well as an adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute and senior adviser to the Concord Coalition. He is the author or coauthor of The Aging of Korea (MetLife, 2007), Building Human Capital in an Aging Mexico (CSIS, 2005), The Graying of the Middle Kingdom (Prudential Financial, 2004), and The Global Retirement Crisis (Citigroup, 2002). Neil Howe is a senior associate of the CSIS Global Aging Initiative, as well as a senior policy adviser to the Blackstone Group and senior adviser to the Concord Coalition. He is the author or coauthor of On Borrowed Time (Transaction, 2004), Millennials Rising (Vintage, 2000), The Fourth Turning (Broadway, 1997), and 13th gen (Vintage, 1993).

CSIS
224 pp.
7" x 10"
May 2008
ISBN 978-0-89206-532-5 (pb)